CPD Courses

The ‘theory of change’ evaluation strategy (described in the Magenta book) was developed to help tackle evaluation of complex multi-level, multi-intervention initiatives. 

This webinar is the second part of a series on Realist Methodology for the Centre for Evaluation of Complexity across the Nexus.

Numerous evaluations of natural environment policy and practice are commissioned by the UK and EU government in order to inform, develop and improve.

The range of methods available to produce useful, credible and rigorous evidence in evaluation is growing but selecting the right method or combination of methods can be difficult.

Theory of Change (TOC) is not a novel evaluation tool in itself. As a member of a family of theory based approaches to outcome evaluation it has become a key approach to assessing the outcomes of complex interventions where implementation strands are multiple, causal paths are not straightforward and feedback loops do not lend themselves to a linear cause-effect analysis.

Decision making on complex systems requires coming to grips with irreducible uncertainty. In the literature, there is an emerging consensus that any decision regarding a complex system should be robust with respect to the various uncertainties. A plan is robust if its expected performance is only weakly affected by deep uncertainty.

Dynamic Pattern Synthesis (DPS) is a new mixed method designed by Philip Haynes that seeks to maximise the advantages of Cluster Analysis and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to search for dynamic patterns in data.

These are turbulent times in which to advance sustainable development. Environmental and social challenges, encapsulated in the United Nation’s Global Goals, are as pressing as ever, but the political, regulatory and funding landscape is changing rapidly, creating new uncertainties and opportunities.

Many approaches to addressing complexity in evaluation design are burgeoning. In part this is in response to the inadequacy of ‘complexity-thin’ approaches to supporting solutions to entrenched and evolving problems. A second factor is witnessing new complex problems emerging with radical changes in society and sectors.

Drawing upon two recent studies – one on health trajectories and the other on grid reliability – Brian will demonstrate how evaluation researchers can use case-based complexity to more effectively model nexus issues across time/space.