System Dynamics is a mature, model-based policy design and evaluation method which has been used to harness the power of complexity on a wide range of policy issues, both in the UK and elsewhere, over the past 60 years.
past event
Helping Health Services Plan for Covid-19
Between March and July 2020 Brian Castellani and Pete Barbrook-Johnson became part of the COVID-19 Community Health and Social Care Modelling Team at Durham University.
UKES / CECAN Online Masterclass – Process Tracing Introductory Course
Process Tracing is a method used to understand causal chains in single case analysis settings. It is the systematic analysis of contribution claims through explicit investigation of how pieces of evidence support or undermine a particular hypothesis or claim.
CECAN Webinar: Trophic Analysis of Directed Networks
Directed networks are used in many domains. Particularly relevant examples to evaluation and appraisal are systems maps and influence maps. Trophic analysis indicates how far up or downstream each node is and computes a quantity called trophic incoherence, but perhaps better called circularity, which indicates the extent to which the network fails to line up with each node feeding to nodes at the next level.
UKES / CECAN Online Masterclass – Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA)
This course is an introduction to Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). QCA is a method for the comparative study of cases and is used to analyse qualitative social data systematically.
CECAN Webinar: Systems Approaches to Water Management and Infrastructure Planning for Zero-Pollution Targets
At a time of system shocks, significant underlying challenges have been revealed in current approaches to delivering infrastructure, including the need for holistic assessment and that infrastructure users in many societies feel distant from nature. In this seminar, I will present methods for integrated land use planning and sustainable water management.
CECAN Ltd CPD Course: An Introduction to Influence Mapping in Evaluation
This 1-day course introduces participants to influence mapping, within the context of evaluation or as a general introduction.
CECAN Webinar: How can System Dynamics Support Policy Evaluation?
System Dynamics is a mature, model-based policy design and evaluation method which has been used to harness the power of complexity on a wide range of policy issues, both in the UK and elsewhere, over the past 60 years.
Part 5 – Why we Need Locally/Nationally Interdependent Models to Successfully Exit COVID-19 Lockdown
This post is the 5th of several devoted to addressing the complex challenges of modelling the coronavirus as a public health issue. It is also about clarifying for a wider audience how and why such modelling is important, as well as the value and power of complex systems thinking and computational modelling for public health policy.
Policy Internship – Abandoned, Lost and Discarded Fishing Gear – A Fisherman’s Perspective
From April – June 2019, Betheney Wills, a PhD Researcher from CECAN/University of Surrey undertook a policy internship with the Marine and Fisheries Team at the Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).
Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles
The Industrial Strategy established Grand Challenges to “put the UK at the forefront of the industries of the future, ensuring that the UK takes advantage of major global changes, improving people’s lives and the country’s productivity”. These are developments in technology that are set to transform industries and societies around the world, and in which the UK has the opportunity to play a leading global role. The Future of Mobility is one of these Grand Challenges, with the aim of the UK becoming a world leader in the way people, goods and services move.
CECAN Webinar: Handling Complexity in Policy Evaluation – Introducing the new Magenta Book 2020 Supplementary Guide
Complex systems are all around us. Their characteristics make their behaviour hard to predict and they present challenges to policy making and evaluation. CECAN was invited to produce a supplementary guide on complexity for the 2020 revision of the Magenta Book – UK Government’s central guidance on how to evaluate policies, projects and programmes.
CECAN Press Release (1 April 2020): CECAN Guidance on Complexity and Policy Evaluation Published by HM Treasury
HM Treasury has today (Wednesday 1 April 2020) updated the Magenta Book, UK Government’s central guidance on how to evaluate policies, projects and programmes.
Handling Complexity in Policy Evaluation – Magenta Book 2020 Supplementary Guide
The Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN) has produced supplementary guidance for the 2020 revision of the Magenta Book, published on 1st April.
Part 4 – Social Networks and the Coronavirus: The Importance of Complexity Science for Public Health
This post is the 4th of several devoted to addressing the complex challenges of modelling the coronavirus as a public health issue. It is also about clarifying for a wider audience how and why such modelling is important, as well as the value and power of complex systems thinking and computational modelling for public health policy.
Part 3 – Simulation and the Coronavirus: The Importance of Complexity Science for Public Health
This post is the 3rd of several devoted to addressing the complex challenges of modelling the coronavirus as a public health issue. It is also about clarifying for a wider audience how and why such modelling is important, as well as the value and power of complex systems thinking and computational modelling for public health policy.
Part 2 – Modelling COVID-19: So, What Does an Effective Approach to Simulation Look Like?
This post is the 2nd of several devoted to addressing the complex challenges of modelling the coronavirus as a public health issue. It is also about clarifying for a wider audience how and why such modelling is important, as well as the value and power of complex systems thinking and computational modelling for public health policy.
Part 1 – Modelling the Coronavirus: Why All Public Health Models are Not the Same
In response to these advances, the current post is meant to be the first of several addressing the complex challenges of modelling the coronavirus as a public health issue. It is also about clarifying for a wider audience how and why such modelling is important, as well as the value and power of complex systems thinking and computational modelling for public health policy. Still, this does not mean modelling will answer all of our questions; nor does it mean that all models are equally useful!
CECAN Working with Department for Transport on Future of Mobility
Pete Barbrook-Johnson, Alex Penn and Ben Shaw have begun a new CECAN case study working with DfT to support their work on ‘Mobility-as-a-Service’ (i.e. using data and software, such as apps, to manage and access transport services).
Handling Complexity in Policy Evaluation: Introducing the Magenta Book 2020 Supplementary Guide on Complexity
The Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN) has produced supplementary guidance for the 2020 revision of the Magenta Book. The Magenta Book, published by HM Treasury, is the official government guide about policy evaluation.
CECAN Delivers Complexity-Appropriate Evaluation Training for PHE London
On 9th January 2020, Dione Hills (Tavistock Institute) and Pete Barbrook-Johnson (University of Surrey) delivered training on how to conduct evaluations in complex settings to a mixed group of practitioners and policy teams working on public health issues in London.
CECAN and Mott McDonald Run First Workshop as Part of Defra Water Systems Research Project
Alex Penn and Pete Barbrook-Johnson (CECAN Senior Research Fellows based at University of Surrey) and colleagues from Mott McDonald ran the first of three Participatory Systems Mapping workshops in the Eden river catchment in Cumbria on 15th January 2020.
CECAN Webinar: Mapping the Cognitive Landscape of Productivity in Northern Ireland: A Systems Approach to Understanding Productivity Policy
Like the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland has experienced weak productivity growth since the 2008 Financial Crisis despite broader economic recovery. Consequently, boosting productivity has been a central goal of contemporary economic policy even to the extent that both UK and Northern Ireland industrial strategies have been described as productivity policies.
Dealing with Complexity in Policy Evaluation: BEIS/CECAN Briefing and Workshop
On 4th October 2019, CECAN held a briefing and workshop session with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) on dealing with complexity in policy evaluation.
Innovative Partnerships: A Review of Innovative Public-Private Partnerships in Food-Energy-Water-Environment Domains in the UK
Pete Barbrook-Johnson, a UKRI Innovation Fellow hosted by CECAN, has published the first report from his 3-year fellowship. The report reviews innovative public-private partnerships working in the UK on food-energy-water- environment ‘nexus’ domains.
CECAN Webinar: Demi-Regs and the Characteristics of Realist Evaluation
A demi-regularity, also known as a demi-reg, is a semi-predictable outcome pattern. The demi-reg concept has relevance to fundamental principles in realist evaluation (Pawson and Tilley, 1997) including the context-mechanism-outcome (CMO) configuration and middle-range theorizing.
CECAN Contributes to Norway Anniversary Evaluation Conference
Picking up on the CECAN webinar last year on the topic ‘How to evaluate – or commission – an evaluation when everything is messy’, Dione Hills (Tavistock Institute and CECAN Associate) was asked to give a key note speech last month at the Norwegian Evaluation Conference.
CECAN Provides Training for New £5m SIPHER Systems Science Public Health Project
Alex Penn and Pete Barbrook-Johnson (Senior Research Fellows in CECAN) recently delivered a bespoke 1-day course on participatory systems mapping for researchers and policy makers in the new SIPHER project.
How Does the Commissioning Process Inhibit the Uptake of Complexity-Appropriate Evaluation?
CECAN Fellow, Jayne Cox, has published a project report from her funded fellowship project entitled “How does the commissioning process inhibit the uptake of complexity-appropriate evaluation?”.
Complexity and Evaluation Failure
People attending CECAN training and events often want to hear about evaluations that ‘failed’ because the wrong (i.e. not complexity appropriate) methods or approach were used. Providing such examples is not easy: accounts of evaluations that ‘fail’ are rarely published, and when we have examples from our own practice, confidentiality – or embarrassment – can make it hard to talk about these in public.